ب1أ1 متى سيحدث وقف إطلاق النار في الحرب الروسية الأوكرانية؟


لن يحدث وقف فعلي لإطلاق النار أو إنهاء فعلي للحرب قبل نهاية عام 2026. 1. لم يتم الوصول إلى العقدة الحرجة لعام 2026 التي ذكرها يي تشيكيوان. 2. على الولايات المتحدة وروسيا التفاوض على كيفية تقسيم مصالح أوكرانيا وأوروبا، وهو أمر ليس سهلاً. 3. لم يتم تشكيل الحد الأدنى للإصلاح الذي يريده ترامب، وقد لا يعرف هو نفسه إلى أي مدى يمكن تحقيق إصلاحه.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Three Possible Ceasefire Lines of Russia-Ukraine War:

Image
Three Possible Ceasefire Lines  of Russia-Ukraine War :  Reality Basis, Opportunity , and Prospects  (Original at May 23,2022)   Abstract:   The overwhelming power to set up where and when the ceasefire line comes out is the United States only , even though Russia, West Europe, and China also are important background factors. T here  are theoretically 3 ceasefire lines in the Russia-Ukrain e W ar. Line 1 is a geographical demarcation drawn by the Dnieper River   plus the Black Sea Coastline . Line 2 is bounded by the complete administrative boundary of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. Line 3 is any arc in the wide area between lines 1 and 2. I f the United States only pursues a limited outcome in this Russia-Ukraine War   and  does not directly involve  other countries , the United States will ha ve  enough initiative to draw a stable ceasefire line anywhere in L1, L2, and even L3. For Russia, corresponding to the uncertainty brough...
Read more

Whose War? Players winning or losing in the Russia-Ukraine War

Image
  Abstract: T here are two certain losers, Ukraine and the EU , produced from the Russia-Ukraine War already. Europe as a whole has lost its prospect to become one of the top powers of the world. Ukraine has lost its power over its territory more than it had done before the war started. Worse yet, Ukraine might lose its construction frame as a whole country. There  i s  one certain winner and that is  Russia because it will strongly stand at its bottom line built by a complete border of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. With this bottom line, Russia has accomplished  two main goals. The se include   the  de-Nazification of  eastern Ukraine and halting the humanitarian catastrophe in the Donbas region. Russia may win more with the best possibility to set up a blocking wall along the east bank of the Dnieper River and the Black Sea Coast. There are two other  big winners if the war is confined to a limited-scale . They are America and China. A...
Read more

Conflict will remain confined to Central Ukraine until 2026

Image
Russia-Ukraine War: Conflict will remain confined to Central Ukraine until 2026   There have been three recent events with profound historical significance. One is that state terrorist attacks have been used as an applicable means of warfare[1]. Then there are Russia's statements and steps for using nuclear tools. And late NATO conducted military exercises for the application of nuclear tools [2]. These high-impact events will raise public and elite concerns about the state of the world. After the Cuban Missile Crisis, the world once again faced a serious risk of nuclear tools option. Regardless of the purpose and bottom line of the US-Russian nuclear show, the public must see that the probability of a nuclear option is real. The miniaturization of nuclear weapons yields, the increasingly weakening of the aftermath of nuclear war, and the increasing talk of nuclear options by military generals and major politicians, all of they composes of one kind of  force of nuclear ...
Read more