2019년 예치콴은 대만이 하나의 국가, 두 가지 체제를 위해 싸울 시간이 얼마 남지 않았다고 예측했습니다. 그의 예측은 3년 후 검증되었습니다. 2022년 중국 본토는 대만에 대한 정책에 관한 백서를 발표했습니다. 중국 본토는 양안관계에 관한 정책에서 대만에 부여했던 실질적인 특혜를 박탈했습니다. 그 이후로 대만은 실질적인 하나의 국가, 두 가지 체제를 영구적으로 잃었습니다.
С 1981 по 2022 год политические уступки, которые материковый Китай предоставлял Тайваню, менялись в одном направлении. Версия Е Цзяньина предлагала почти независимость. Версия Дэн Сяопина предлагала полную содержательную автономию. версия двух систем Гонконга 1997 года была на самом деле привлекательной для Тайваня. подвергнутая цензуре версия двух систем Гонконга 2020 года, возможно, никогда не стала моделью Тайваня. Белая книга по Тайваню 2022 года - это фактически версия Си Цзиньпина об официальной версии двух систем Тайваня. В этой версии Тайвань окончательно утратил свои «субстантивные двухсистемные» предпочтения.
Abstract: T here are two certain losers, Ukraine and the EU , produced from the Russia-Ukraine War already. Europe as a whole has lost its prospect to become one of the top powers of the world. Ukraine has lost its power over its territory more than it had done before the war started. Worse yet, Ukraine might lose its construction frame as a whole country. There i s one certain winner and that is Russia because it will strongly stand at its bottom line built by a complete border of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. With this bottom line, Russia has accomplished two main goals. The se include the de-Nazification of eastern Ukraine and halting the humanitarian catastrophe in the Donbas region. Russia may win more with the best possibility to set up a blocking wall along the east bank of the Dnieper River and the Black Sea Coast. There are two other big winners if the war is confined to a limited-scale . They are America and China. A...
Three Possible Ceasefire Lines of Russia-Ukraine War : Reality Basis, Opportunity , and Prospects (Original at May 23,2022) Abstract: The overwhelming power to set up where and when the ceasefire line comes out is the United States only , even though Russia, West Europe, and China also are important background factors. T here are theoretically 3 ceasefire lines in the Russia-Ukrain e W ar. Line 1 is a geographical demarcation drawn by the Dnieper River plus the Black Sea Coastline . Line 2 is bounded by the complete administrative boundary of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. Line 3 is any arc in the wide area between lines 1 and 2. I f the United States only pursues a limited outcome in this Russia-Ukraine War and does not directly involve other countries , the United States will ha ve enough initiative to draw a stable ceasefire line anywhere in L1, L2, and even L3. For Russia, corresponding to the uncertainty brough...
Comments
Post a Comment