Whose War? Players winning or losing in the Russia-Ukraine War

 Abstract: There are two certain losers, Ukraine and the EU, produced from the Russia-Ukraine War already. Europe as a whole has lost its prospect to become one of the top powers of the world. Ukraine has lost its power over its territory more than it had done before the war started. Worse yet, Ukraine might lose its construction frame as a whole country. There is one certain winner and that is Russia because it will strongly stand at its bottom line built by a complete border of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. With this bottom line, Russia has accomplished two main goals. These include the de-Nazification of eastern Ukraine and halting the humanitarian catastrophe in the Donbas region. Russia may win more with the best possibility to set up a blocking wall along the east bank of the Dnieper River and the Black Sea Coast. There are two other big winners if the war is confined to a limited-scale. They are America and China. America has already reached at least three realistic rewards, including weakening Europe, weakening Russia, and building a solid Ukraine Trench to prevent Europe and Russia from approaching each other. The United States also has a big power to decide time-slot and location when the final ceasefire line is established, as well as it is very strong to manage the scope and length of the war. As a bystander, China has also gained a lot. Russia embraces Chinese economic and political principles more. As the war continues, the Russian economy is likely to accelerate its approach to the Chinese economic system. China’s economic clout also is allowed to enter the former Commonwealth of Independent States. However, if the U.S. has a plan to drag China into a large-scale war, it will not only put both of them at huge risk, but also expose numerous other nations to great risk. They could all suffer from unimaginable losses.

Keywords: Prediction, Russia-Ukraine War, The EU, Taiwan Strait, USA, Winner, Loser.

[Complaint and explanation: Does the study of political science serve research methods or political decision-making? In four months way with delaying review rejections, two of the four predictions in a predictive article have come true. However, it was repeatedly rejected because it did not meet the REQUIREMENTS OF AN ACADEMIC JOURNAL. I am worried that all 4 predictions in the future will not meet the REQUIREMENT OF ACADEME. Please note that the forecast ideas for this article appeared in APRIL, the first phase of Russia's military operation, and the first draft was formed in May. I hope that in the future, when people review this history, they can discover the true facts that were once predicted before. The four  predictions in this article are: 1. The EU will be seriously hurt by this war(now it is true); 2. The United States is the decisive force in this war, and Russia can gain an advantage before the United States has made up its mind(now it also is true). Without the agreement of the United States, Russia will be impossible to obtain the strategic interests it wants. 3. Before 2026, it is impossible for Russia to break through to the west of the Dnieper and the coast of the Black Sea; also it is impossible for the US bloc to break through the administrative border of Donetsk and Luhansk to the east. 4. There will be a big military operation in the Taiwan Strait in 2026. ]

[Original: June 18, 2022;  edited: July 25, 2022].

Originally submitted on June 18， 2022.  Link: 

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Ktj8rwoEIwpk27GE5ZKINTxsEmEPbBs7/view?usp=sharing

Who are the leaders, and who are the team partners in this Russia-Ukraine War? Who will profit? And Who will lose their interest in this war?

When we focus on this war located on Ukrainian territory, the above questions must be at the top of the frequent questions list. Even when the war was in its early stages of development, two losers had already been identified: the European Union (EU) and Ukraine. From what we have seen, there is only one clear winner so far, Russia. America should be the biggest winner as long as China does not enter the picture. If China gets involved it will spell disaster for both America and China and will result in unknown consequences. 

 

The European Union 

By being in formal and comprehensive enmity with Russia, the EU has killed many of its interests such as Nord Stream 2, the China-EU Investment Agreement, and the Euro settlement of the Sino-Russian oil and gas trade. However, the biggest loss from the EU is its position as one of the top political players, and other countries no longer expect this outlook and support it.

 

Ukraine 

The decline of Ukraine did not start from this war, but with the division of the Soviet Union. Ukraine has been constricted by the new world order established by the United States. Under this new policy, gathering wealth through military means from weaker countries is no longer possible. The alternative is to leverage economic and financial tools to grow. Ukraine has still not learned the necessary skills to enrich the country and let the people prosper. Participating in war games to trade EU’s butter is an easy way for Ukraine to improve its economic activity, however, it is difficult for them to do so due to their lack of power as demonstrated in this war. They are not the main players as they had no military powers to start, continue, or stop this conflict with Russia. 

 

Russia

As long as keeping the intact administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk as the western bottom front line, Russia can stably stand on the winning side to protect its national interests. It will not be possible to push Russia eastwards beyond this bottom line, because it is not only built by Russia but also supported by China. Russia also has a good chance of reaching a temporary or permanent ceasefire line with the US block in the vast area between the east Dnieper bank and the administrate border of Donbas. Even in the best-case scenario, Russia can establish a stable ceasefire line along the eastern banks of the Dnieper and the Black Sea coast. The United States can suppress Russia's prosperity through a prolonged war process, but can not destroy Russia's economic framework when it is made from various raw material sources. 

 

The United States 

America has already gained a lot from this war so far. These achievements include at least the following:

(a, weakening Europe to prevent Europe's centrifugal tendencies;

(b, weakening Russia, and possibly to a large extent;

(c, successfully creating a Ukrainian Trench to prevent Russia and Europe from approaching each other.

(d, rehearsing a script of a full-sized economic war applied to China in the future.

America, the leading country in the world, can keep its advantage for the long term, until putting itself at a huge risk by initiating a war against China.

 

China

China has also won a lot so far even though this country still stands out on the battlefield of the Russia-Ukraine War. Russia has changed its attitude towards the Belt and Road Initiative. In all political, military, and economic directions, Russia has moved closer to China than it had ever. It can be expected that Russia will get closer and closer in the way it connects to China. The Ukrainian Trench also help China block NATO power away from the land directions.

 

Another prospect of the Russia-Ukraine War is that the United States is planning to drag China into the war. If the United States has a certain plan to pull China into an existing war or another war triggered by any events after 2026, the risks will be extremely large and unpredictable. Both of these two top powers in the world might be moved into the loser group from the current winner list.

 

 

The war for Ukraine

It looks like there are only two countries involved in the Russia-Ukraine War so far, and Ukraine is one of them. Some Ukrainian politicians have claimed that they are fighting for you, for the West, and for the world. It is technically true that Ukraine is working hard in a war initiated and orientated by someone else. Ukrainians have never only fought for themselves. Since the denuclearization of Ukraine started in the 90s of the last century, foreign factors have been heavily involved in Ukraine's political framework. The chaos that started in 2013 was not solely due to domestic factors. In the past eight years, the process to reclaim the power of the two divided states has been managed by not only the Ukrainian government but also by foreign powers. The aggressive military expansion in Ukraine that eventually called out Russia’s response was also supported by foreign powers. The ongoing battle is also supported by external sources, especially in information warfare to reach battlefield transparency. So technically we can think about the fact that Ukraine is fighting a war controlled by a foreign power.

In another way, the current war between Russia and Ukraine is just a fatalistic ingredient of a long-term war that has lasted for decades in Ukraine to find a way to save this country. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine has started a long war to find a good way to improve its economic level and save its people.

The disintegration of the Soviet Union can be regarded as a kind of self-help action at the economic level. When a huge organization can not afford the economic cost of all its members, the core power circle expels marginal members to ensure the interests of core members. Under these circumstances, it is unrealistic for Ukraine to get substantial economic support from Russia when Russia is not rich enough. Turning away from Russia and then embracing the West must be an inescapable attempt in Ukraine’s fate.      

Embracing the West can be deemed a trial process to improve (or rescue) the Ukrainian economy. Everyone knows that getting help from your neighbour will not be easier than getting help from your cousin. However, in this case, the cousin is poor while the neighbor is rich enough to help. Turning their back against Russia is not only a  hard choice to make but also a painful one for Ukraine. The direction that is chosen caused a big argument and a miserable civil war. It also builds a solid foundation for this hot war. Trading political pain (hostility to Russia) for economic aid from the EU may be something that Ukraine has had to do in a trial to figure out its national development path. Perhaps it is the inevitable catastrophe in the fate of this country. This reason constructs a solid background in the theoretical, economic, and political basis for Ukraine to become an anti-Russian frontier state. This is a heartbreaking scenario for, not only, Ukraine, but for Russia as well.

 

There recently are a variety of different viewpoints to guide Ukraine's response to Russia. Some persuaded Ukraine to insist on fighting until they emerge victorious. Some advised Ukraine to concede land and conduct peace talks. Some suggested completely surrendering to Russia and thus having the opportunity to preserve all its territory. I agree with all of the above suggestions to some degree, but first, we have to evaluate whether Ukraine can make its independent decisions with its own standing or do a job as an employee following a foreign order. If Ukraine retains the right to make these decisions, what would be the most beneficial to Ukraine?

1. All-round fall to Russia, becoming a forefront of Russia's defense against NATO. As a military security strategy, this seems like the best option to be chosen, but it might not be good enough for the economy. This choice was completely abandoned eight years ago, and the external control power will not allow Ukraine to do that. There would be no probability to take this way unless one military leader successfully rebelled against the external control of power and then suddenly reached an agreement with Russia.

2. To Ceasefire along the bank of Dnieper River (named as L1 line). This looks like a very bad ending for Ukraine, but it might be a good plan or the best one that Ukraine can reach under the current circumstances. With this plan, Ukraine can still keep a shell construct and an inner core as an independent country. The weak point of this plan is that no Ukrainian politicians will dare to admit the reality of this failure until they have no choice after all military and economic sources have been destroyed. This is yet another tragedy since the outbreak of this war. In addition, this plan must also be approved by the United States.

3. To compress Russia back to the administrative border of Donetsk and Luhansk (named as L2 line). After a series of victories eastwards, compressing Russia back to the L2 line will be a great dream all Ukrainians fantasize about. This result seems like the best goal for Ukraine to pursue in this war, but the process will be fraught with risks.

(a. Firstly this goal will be very difficult to achieve until Russia has experienced a series of military failures, which will be a long and painful way with a lot of variables.

(b. This result must come out with a big possibility that the people's livelihood in this region will be completely destroyed.

(c. Under the condition of the United States not sending its troops into this war directly, Ukraine must rely on the army of local countries to reach this target. These foreign armies, such as Poland, Romania, Turkey, Hungary, and even terrorist forces, etc., who are willing to intervene in this war must be for their own national interests, not for Ukraine’s.

(d. There will be a high probability that some of the small regimes were established by these foreign powers on Ukrainian territory. This means Ukraine might be divided into some small pieces. We can call this outcome the breakdown of Ukraine. A fragmented Ukraine must be a powder keg in the heart of Europe.

(e. The worst result is that each participating country will divide Ukraine into lots of independent governments according to the script of the division of Yugoslav.

4. Ceasefire in the zone between the bank of the Dnieper River and the administrative border of Donetsk and Luhansk (named as L3 line). This is also an ideal result for Ukraine. Its disadvantage is that the ceasefire in this area will not be stable in the long term. This is because the cost of overturning the ceasefire agreement is small. Some of the most powerful politicians in the world or the local region can trigger fire again and again in this region to obtain political interests when they want. Compared to these strong politicians, Ukraine’s central government has very weak control over the conduct of the war in this region and will be becoming weaker and weaker as the war progresses.

 

Prospect for Ukraine from this war

What can we scout from a political perspective of this war for Ukraine after we jump out of the technical and tactical aspects? Perhaps there will be three judgments obtained with a high probability.

1. A sturdy Ukrainian Trench has been built. This ditch at least will prevent Russia from collaborating with Western Europe for the next 20 years, regardless of whether the final ceasefire line is on the L1, L2, or L3 line. This is the only sure outcome of this hot war.

2. When and where to cease-fire depends on the decision of the foreign controlling power. The negative effects of a prolonged war are more in the heart of Europe than in Ukraine. The longer the war lasts, the greater the impact on the stability of the European core.

3. There is a high probability that Ukraine will split into several small pieces and become a powder keg for Europe that will threaten the security of the European core area and even the entire world.

 

 

War for West Europe/ The European Union

Why did the Western European Countries actively jump into a war fighting Russia? Let us deduce some reasons from military, political, and economical perspectives.

 

Military perspective

Has Russia obviously enlarged its military power or expanded its armament in the past 30 years?  No.

Has Russia actively provoked border conflicts with Western European countries in the past 30 years?  No.

In the past 30 years or so, has Russia provided money and weapons to the opposition in Western European countries to conduct anti-government military operations?  No.

Does Russia have overwhelming military power over Western Europe recently?  No.

Is there evidence that Russia has plans for military operations against Western European countries?  No.

Political perspective

Does Russia have plans to oppose Western European political systems?  No

Does Russia have plans to instigate chaos in Western Europe?  No

Has Russia ever funded anti-government riots in Western European countries?  No.

Has Russia interfered in elections in Western European countries?  No

Will Russia pose a threat to political stability in Western Europe?  No.

Has Russia been killing people in the Donbas region for the past 8 years, causing a humanitarian disaster?  No.

Economical perspective

Is Russia taking away market share from Western European countries? No

Is the Russian economy putting enormous pressure on Western European economies? No

Will the Russian economy hinder the development of Western Europe? No.

Will the Russian economy harm the stability of Western Europe? No.

So let us examine some solid reasons to support Western Europe involving themselves in this war against Russia.

I can not deduce any reason for Western Europe countries embroiling themselves in a war with serious consequences based on their long-term benefit. Maybe we can scout the following opinion with a Western European position.

1 This is not a war for European long-term interests.

2. Media manipulators and politicians possibly profit from this war.

3 Compared to Ukraine which falls into this war based on inescapable historical factors, Western Europe has killed lots of their long-term interests from this war to trade some personal profits and national short-term interests.

 

Prospect for Europe in the war

Western Europe's reasoning for joining the war is not based on their long-term group interests, so it will be very difficult to predict what they can do in this war and, what heights they can reach under their own domination. We may see a little clue from the faint background to scouting the prospect for Europe in this war.

1. If the war lasts for more than six months, there might be three to seven European countries directly involving themselves in this war. A series of unpredictable outcomes may follow. One of which is that Ukraine will become the birthplace of long-term unrest in the European core region. If the war expands to involve Turkiye, Iran, Syria, Israel, and Palestine, the unrest will spread to the Europe region and the Middle East.

2. Once China claims support for the Russian position, Europe must come forward to support the American position, whether economic, military, or political, which will directly put Western Europe to face China’s hostility.  

3. If China and the United States engage in a semi-contacted military war, or full-scale economic war, China will surely conduct a global response. The big point here will be to push Europe into chaos to weaken America’s ability to sustain a long-term war.

4. It is very hard to see a chance for Europe to win some strategic interests, even some politicians and some local countries might grab some short profits from this war.

 

War for Russia

Is Russia's role that of the aggressor or a defender in this Russia-Ukraine War? This could be a huge subject for debate. From a military perspective, Ukraine did not have any plans to directly attack Russia nor did they take any action attacking Russia ever. Although the Ukrainian army has been carrying out military operations in the Donbas for eight years, it is theoretically based on Ukrainian territory, so that is likely a kind of civil war. From this standpoint, Russia is of course an aggressor who invades another country. Another fact is that Russia has been warning against expanding NATO into the original CIS countries. The West, of course, can certainly reject Russia's sphere of influence. When the West refuses to recognize the former CIS region as Russia's sphere of influence, at the same time NATO is expanding its sphere of influence to the Russian border. With this view to stop the NATO expansion process, Russia actually is a defender, and NATO can be seen as the attacker.

Setting aside this kind of logical or lexical debate, we can see that Russia is indeed conducting a defensive military operation to build a denial trench or buffer zone against NATO's intrusion eastwards.   

We can set up some questions on why Russia worries about NATO expanding its sphere of influence.

1. During the two Chechen wars, had the West supported the Chechen rebels, either at the government level or at the NGO level?  YES.

2. Before the Russo-Georgian War in 2008, were there Western powers deeply involving themselves in Georgia's political management?  YES.

3. After the three Baltic countries joined NATO, did these three countries develop their diplomatic relations with Russia for better or worse?  Worse.

4. In the direction of Kazakhstan, are there some of anti-Russian NGOs operating?  YES

5. Had Western Powers been involved in the 2014 coup that overthrew a legally elected Ukrainian government that was pro-Russia?  YES.   

6. Had the US ever sanctioned Russia for accusing Russia of meddling in the US election?  YES.

7. With so many positive answers, should Russia worry about the West's malice towards? Definitely yes.

8. Will Russia worry about its national security by setting Ukraine as a land hostile to Russia? Definitely yes.

9. Under the above reasons, is it necessary for Russia to take military action to defend NATO? Of course, YES.

Compared with the weak basis of the Western European intervening in a war against Russia, Russia has a series of solid reasons to launch a war against NATO.

 

Based on national interests, Russia's pursuit in this war may have the following options.

1. To obtain political benefits comprehensively. The goal is to force the Ukrainian government to secede from NATO in an all-around way and become a denial zone that prevents NATO from expanding eastwards.

The first action phase of the Russian army is for this goal. The action in the first phase shows the following characteristics:

(a. distributing army force widely and comprehensively in a huge area;

(b. cutting down and dividing the Ukrainian army into separated clusters in different zones;

(c. Arranging heavy (or suspicious) troops to threaten the capital of Ukraine;

(d. replicating the model of the Russo-Georgian War in 2008 for a quick political goal.

Unfortunately, this political goal has not been achieved in the first phase, as Russia has no absolute overwhelming advantage when Ukraine was strongly supported by foreign powers. Under the current situation, the possibility to achieve this goal in the future almost disappears. Unless a part of the Ukrainian military force is suddenly freed from the control of external forces and quickly reaches an agreement with Russia after a military coup. In reality, Russia has stepped back from this goal to pursue the next level of goals.

2. To pursue general military victories and major political goals as the second-best objective. The goal is to set up a ceasefire line along the Dnieper and the Black Sea coast (named as line L1a) or along the Dnieper river only (named as line L1b). This ceasefire line is a realistic goal that can be reached.

In this war, Russia and the United States have a common goal to dig a deep and wide ditch between Russia and the West to block hostile forces from moving ahead. Where the ditch is located will be based on the affordability of one or both parties in the war to continuously cost. Once the United States and Russia reach some kind of compromise under certain conditions, a ceasefire line can be achieved somewhere. If Russia had already firmly occupied the L1 line before the United States has determined to commit significant war resources, the purpose of setting a ceasefire line along the L1 line is a realistic possibility. 

The advantage of the L1a line is that it can eliminate the Ukrainian naval power, and reduce the possibility of Western naval forces intervening in this area.

The benefit of the L1b line is that it reduces the probability to face harassment from land forces on the Black Sea coast.

3. Another plan that Russia may be willing to choose recently is to seek a ceasefire plan in the area between the L1 and L2 lines. It seems that Russia recently has some practical difficulties in pursuing the ceasefire plan along the L1 line.

This plan looks very good for all main characters in the war scenario. Russia can quickly achieve political and military victories without paying more cost. Ukraine can recollect its soldiers from every divided battlefield. These surviving warriors will form an important force to protect the lands they can defend in the future. The United States avoids further military, economic and political costs to keep current profits. European countries can take a deep free breath when they are finally out of the anxiety-provoking environment. However, setting up a ceasefire line in this area is a huge risk to all parties in the war. Neither side on both banks of the ceasefire line has been completely knocked down so that any one of them has enough capacity to recall a war or a conflict. Without the help of a natural military dividing like the Dnieper River, conflict is more likely to occur. Any aggressive powerful politician can provoke a new conflict to seize some political profit whenever they need from this ceasefire line. In other words, Russia or Europe is at great risk to be involved in a protracted war.

4. To keep the bottom ceasefire line along with the complete administrative border of Donetsk and Luhansk (named as L2 line). If Russia is dragged into a protracted war, it risks a military defeat. Perhaps Russia has to fall back to the L2 line as the last bottom line. The ceasefire line located there will be strong because not only will Russia put its heavy power on this bottom line, but China will also absolutely support it. Under the current political situation, China will not allow the West to compress the ceasefire line eastwards beyond this line. It means China will not tolerate Russia suffering from a complete military defeat.

 

Prospect for Russia from this war

1. There is a relatively high probability to set up a likely stable Ukraine Trench on the L1 line. The United States still hesitates about how much it will spend in this war. If Russia can firmly set up its front along the L1 line when America is hesitating about its cost in the war, Russia will gain a favourable political position to set up a ceasefire line there.

2. Another higher probability is setting up a ceasefire line at the L3 line area between the L1 line and the L2 line. Ceasefire in this area is not the best option for Russia to reach long-term stability because America has controlling power on this kind of ceasefire line.

3. There is currently no possibility that Russia will be compressed back at the L2 line before 2026. The U.S. will not want to pay so much cost on Russia only.

4. Even if Russia is eventually squeezed back to the L2 line, Russia still will be a partial political victory for both building the Ukrainian Trench and stopping the humanitarian catastrophe in Donbas Region.

5. Regardless of whether the ceasefire line will be located on the L1 line or the L3 line in the near future, the ceasefire line will face enormous challenges in 2024 and 2026 according to the US election and the situation in the Taiwan Strait.

6. Speeding up economic cooperation (or integration) with China will be an important task for Russia currently. If Russia finally jumps into an economic alliance with China based on foreign pressure, it will seriously change the current world economic map.

7. There is little to no probability that Russia and China will sign full alliance paperwork or a deep economic alliance, before a war is on Russian territory.

8. Russia’s economic system will not be destroyed by this war eventually because it is mainly composed of raw material suppliers.

 

War for America

The majority of readers may dislike that I list the United States as the main driver of this war, but this inference will be borne out by the course of the war. In actuality, America has lots of reasons to reject this war, and also has lots of reasons to provoke it. America is the only country which has enough power to orient our world. This country has the power to turn disadvantageous situations into advantageous ones. That is why it is very difficult to predict the next step the United States will take. There might be some reasons to inspire America to trigger this war.     

1. To weaken Europe. In the period when Chancellor Angela Merkel presided over Germany, the European economy as a whole was getting better and better. Nowadays, the Nord Stream 2 and China-EU Comprehensive Agreement on Investment will work. The agreement signed by Russia and China last year also specified that oil and gas trade between the two countries should be settled in euros. All of these will push Europe as a whole to get stronger. However, any giant local power will be bad news for America. We can review a similar story that happened early this century. At the beginning of this century, China, South Korea, and Japan were getting closer to forming a good relationship. The cooperation agreement in Northeast Asia was advancing, and there was even a call to create the Asian dollar. However, the Japanese government suddenly launched the “Nationalization of Senkaku ( Diaoyu) Island” to anger the Chinese in 2012. South Korea deployed a missile monitoring and defence system (THAAD) to humiliate the Chinese in 2016. These seriously hostile actions crushed the chance to conduct the Northeast Asia Common Market and the Asia Dollar. Recently Europe is strengthening ties with Russia and China in the economic and political fields, this will then enhance Europe’s independence and reduce America’s power to direct Europe. Weakening Europe’s independence by triggering a war in the core of Europe is reasonable for America on controlling the world for a longer time.

2. A war against Russia. There is a deep inner fear of Russia in the memory of the Western world. Russia, on the map, is near twice the size of the entirety of Europe. This country has the world's largest nuclear force. It also has a history of oppressing the United States militarily. It engaged in hostilities with the United States during the civil wars in Yugoslavia and Syria. Economically, it connects China eastwards and core Europe westwards. For nearly 20 years, this country has been steadily going from strength to strength. The U.S. now has the ability to trigger a war, weaken Russia's economy, drive Russia away from European markets, and undermine Russia’s war potential. There is a hopeful probability to weaken Russia’s nuclear warfare capabilities and potential by the way of weakening Russia's economy. For so many reasons, starting a war against Russia is logical and practical for America.

3. Preparations for the war against China. There are many reasons for the United States to launch a war against China. As long as the possibility of failure is ruled out, these major developed economies in the world will support any type of war against China at any level and under any conditions. China, such a smiling economic beast, seems ready to hug anyone tenderly and politely at any time. It looks like it is without fangs and claws, but all obstacles in its path will vanish after it makes a slight push with its soft-looking lips. This country is taking slow but firm steps and invading the economic field traditionally dominated by developed countries. Every gentle step China took, made the affected area shock like an earthquake. That is a common idea of the west developed economies to block China’s economic invasion. To take back the trade share and defend the developed economies’ interests, the West can do anything to China. For this target, the West has tried various methods, including technology blockade, market blockade, anti-dumping, tariffs, long-arm jurisdiction, concept innovation, concept replacement, disinformation propaganda, and double judgment standards,  but all have been unsuccessful. So if there is a certain opportunity to defeat China even through a war, it will be worth trying. There will be at least three effects on China that America can reach from this war.

(1. Rehearse a high-intensity military operation to assess the consequences and costs of future military action against China.

(2. Rehearse a full-scale economic war to assess outcomes and costs against China.

(3. Test the borders where China will be involved in a war, and test the extent of cooperation between China and Russia.

 

Prospect for America from this war

Regardless of the reason to intervene in this war, the United States has certainly achieved the following three achievements through this war.

1. To weaken Europe,

2. To weaken Russia,

3. To build a solid Ukrainian Trench to separate Russia from Europe.

The United States also can reach the following goals, when it wants to.

4. To drag Russia into a prolonged war, at least until 2024 or 2026. With this point, America might not want to compress Russia back to the L2 line before 2024.

5. If the United States has a military plan against China and it is finally implemented, the United States may win a major victory or face a major defeat.

 

 War for China

China seems not involved in this war, but it has been drawn into the war indirectly. Before the war, China and Ukraine had a major acquisition. A Chinese company had completed the acquisition of a Ukrainian company named JSC Motor Sich, an aero engine company. However, the Ukrainian government suddenly declared the acquisition illegal and then nationalized this new company. This is an extremely rare instance when a finished acquisition process was overthrown. According to the principle of procedural justice pursued by the West, this case is completely unacceptable by the standards of western society. This case also seriously hurt Ukraine's national interests and foreign relations with China. Over the past more than thirty years, before this case, both the Chinese people and the Chinese government were much more friendly toward Ukraine than they were toward Russia. After this case, the voice of sympathy for Ukraine disappeared immediately because the Chinese people agreed that Ukraine completely joined the anti-China camp of the West. If there was no such incident, any policy to support Russia would suffer from strong opposition from the Chinese people. 

Rationally, the Russia-Ukraine War is far from China's borders, and Ukraine is not an important economic activity area for China. China can handle requests and complaints from Ukraine with detachment. The friendly relations with Ukraine gradually built up since the division of the Soviet Union have been squandered by this Ukrainian administration. And out of fear that the Ukrainian government will harm China's interests, the Chinese people's sympathy for the Ukrainian government has been almost inaudible.

As for the Russian voice, China is caught in a dilemma. On the one hand, Russia's resistance to NATO is in line with China's strategic interests and must be supported. On the other hand, China is reluctant to openly oppose US demands for sanctions against Russia. At the same time, China neither likes Russian-style rude diplomacy nor the self-righteous foreign policy of the United States. Fortunately, Ukraine is far enough away from China that China can take a detached attitude and look at all this indifferently. 

In the current stage of confinement of the war, China is one of the few winners ever. There are some profits and risks involved for China.

 

1. Russia is trying to get closer to China through a foreign push. Russia has to hug China fervently and not just be a polite neighbour as it used to be.   

2, Not only will Russia hug China’s political and economic views but Russia will also allow China to expand its influence into the former CIS countries. The longer the war goes on, the closer Russia will get to China.

3, China can be unconcerned with the war westwards the border of the Donestk and Luhansk, the L2 line. There will hardly be any negative outcomes for China if the war is only on the area beyond the L2 line westwards.

4, As the war prolongs and expands, it may cause NATO to expand into Asia. If NATO is expanded to Japan, South Korea, and Australia, it will exert great political and military pressure on China. But this probability is relatively small because, on the whole, major European countries are shy of being involved in a war with China.

5, If America created a new alliance in Asia with Japan, South Korea, Australia, and one or two ASEAN countries (The Association of Southeast Asian Nations), it will also seriously increase political and military pressure on China. This probability is relatively high and relatively realistic.

6, If India supports western sanctions against Russia, it will pose a huge threat to China, because it will build a foundation for the West to form a grand economic alliance that excludes China. Militarily India can only provide low-level harassment to China. It is unrealistic to expect India to put huge pressure on China militarily.

 

Prospects for China from this war

1. Under the circumstance of limited-scale war, China has a good place to judge the war. China will do nothing when the war is west of the border of Donetsk and Luhansk.

2. Anti-China voices from Europe will gradually fade as the war continues. If anti-China voices suddenly grow stronger after a period of muteness, it indicates that the United States will launch tough actions against China.

3. The U.S. will strengthen ties with allies in the Asia-Pacific region while accelerating politico-military agreements with China.

4. There is a very high probability that through the Russia-Ukraine War, the possibility of a hot war between China and the United States is significantly reduced. The likelihood of a major compromise between the two countries before 2026 has increased.

5. As a means of continuing to exert pressure on China, there is a high possibility that the Russia-Ukraine War will continue beyond 2026. Despite the possibility of a brief ceasefire in between or even a de facto ceasefire without an agreement.

6. Once a semi-contact war occurs between China and the United States, it will slide to a full-scale contact war, because public opinion on both sides has been looking forward to war for a long time.

 

War for the world

In any case, when a war involves the United States and China together directly or semi-directly, it must be a world war which will involve more and more countries' insides.

Can politicians around the world have the following questions about a serious probability of war between two top monster countries?

1. Has America made a military script fighting China?

2. Has America measured cost and profit based on a war against China? 

3. Is the consequence of a war against China most likely to be positive or negative for America? 

4. Which plan will benefit America more? To keep China in the recent American System or completely expel China out? 

5. Will America be ready to completely expel China out of the supply chain in the coming fifteen years? Is America able to defeat China in the late of next fifteen years? 

6. Is China thinking about a war coming? Where might China make concessions? What conditions must China make a comprehensive response to? 

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Summary

In short, if the Russia-Ukraine War is confined to a limited regional war, it would be easier to identify the main winners and losers. The United States is the biggest winner among them. America has profited in the following three ways, weakening Europe, weakening Russia, and building the Ukrainian Trench to prevent Europe and Russia from approaching each other. Also, America has absolute power over where and when the ceasefire line is set up. At the same time, America also has a decidedly powerful influence in limiting the size and timing of the war. Russia is another winner we can see so far. It basically can achieve two main goals which are de-Nazification in eastern Ukraine and halting the humanitarian catastrophe in the Donbas region. In addition to this basic gain, Russia has the opportunity to gain more. The best gain would be to dig a Ukrainian trench along the banks of the Dnieper and the Black Sea Coast to defend the borders of its political interests. Or, Russia alternatively can set up a ceasefire line in the area between the Dnieper and the Donbas, to obtain a relatively large buffer zone to protect itself. At least Russia could build Ukraine Trenches along the Donbas' complete border to prevent the encroachment of hostile forces. Although China did not directly participate in the war, Russia strengthened its economic ties with China and supported China more in political and economic fields, all of which benefited China from the war. As the war prolongs, China will gain more benefits from a closer connection in the economic field. Ukraine is, of course, the main loser. It will surely lose more territory than it had done before the war started. The bigger risk is that Ukraine may lose more territory, and even lose its country frame finally. Beyond most people's common sense, Europe as a whole is another major loser from this war. The economic foundation of Europe had been weakened when Nord Stream 2 stopped working, and the China-EU investment agreement was interrupted. Another worse and more far-reaching thing is that Europe has lost the prospect of becoming one of the world's top powers. Other countries in the world have also completely lost their expectations and support for Europe to become one of the top powers. Europe is entering a dynasty formed by a pile of small nations after they expelled Russia out of Europe into Asia through the famous solid Ukraine Trench.

If America has a plan, through the Russia-Ukraine War or any other later chance, to initiate a massive war fighting China, there will be a huge risk not only for these two but also for the whole world. In the first stage of the war between the United States and China, the priority plan for the United States must be to block China’s sea passages and to harass China in multiple locations, multiple directions, and multiple forms, with medium or low intensity. China will mainly respond in the direction of protecting the economic chain. China also will try to initiate chaos in Europe to weaken the ability of the United States to continue the war. China also will stimulate a big mess in the Middle East and North Africa to weaken America’s political power. Although the outcome of a large-sized war is difficult to predict, generally speaking, the United States may face a bigger chance of losing more than China, because China will not lose its territory and state structure from a huge failure. In contrast to China, once U.S. military prestige is weakened, the cost of U.S. governance of the world system rises rapidly.