Russia-Ukraine War: Conflict will remain confined to Central Ukraine until 2026
There have been three recent events with
profound historical significance. One is that state terrorist attacks have been
used as an applicable means of warfare[1]. Then there are Russia's statements
and steps for using nuclear tools. And late NATO conducted military exercises
for the application of nuclear tools [2]. These high-impact events will raise
public and elite concerns about the state of the world. After the Cuban Missile
Crisis, the world once again faced a serious risk of nuclear tools option.
Regardless of the purpose and bottom line
of the US-Russian nuclear show, the public must see that the probability of a
nuclear option is real. The miniaturization of nuclear weapons yields, the
increasingly weakening of the aftermath of nuclear war, and the increasing talk
of nuclear options by military generals and major politicians, all of they composes
of one kind of force of nuclear option[2].
The author dares not deny the possibility that nuclear tools will be used in
Ukraine. However, the use of nuclear tools will not change the political
situation of the Russian-Ukrainian war. With or without nuclear tools, the
conflict between the United States (sorry for not saying Ukraine) and Russia
will be confined to Central Ukraine until 2026 at least. Of course, Russia
still has certain advantages in Odessa and Kherson, but it is impossible to
effectively occupy other areas on the west bank of the Dnieper. It may even be
possible to control only part of the two states. Before 2026, the United States
also has no chance to squeeze Russia back to the east of Luhansk and Donetsk. In
fact, only parts of Central and Southern Ukraine are on stage for the United
States and Russia. This area has enough performance space and opportunity to
provide political gains for these two big players. The United States and
Russia, thus avoid a complete defeat for either side. And it is impossible for
the two major players to completely defeat each other, even with nuclear
weapons.
To repeat: with or without nuclear tools,
the United States and Russia will repeatedly entangle and reap benefits in
parts of central and southern Ukraine. This conclusion will not change until 2026
at least. Nuclear weapons have no dominant role in the outcome of wars. The
outcome of the war is mainly dominated by the country's political power and
geographical attributes that play main roles in the Country War Capability. The
effect of mere military strength on the final outcome of a war is not critical.
Once again, author hopes to have a chance
to show the prediction. Even the author has no educational background, nor a
working background in political science. There are certainly no writing skills
for political science papers. Surprised by the fact that there are many
opportunities to avoid the actual occurrence of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict,
the author recklessly involves himself in the writing of political science. Persuading
the parties in the conflict to control the scale of the conflict while
assessing the vicious consequences. Unfortunately for the two predictions, their
concepts took shape in April 2022, when Russia's first phase of military
operations. Although the author hastily re-delivered the article in May and
June of 2022. They were eventually rejected by several top political science
publications. At the same time sad to see poor predictions confirmed as true step
by step.
For political science papers, is writing
technique more important, or preventing malign political and economic
consequences is more important? Worrying that predictive articles do not
meet ACADEME's requirements, the author
lists some predictions about the Russia-Ukraine War in manuscripts that took
shape in April and submitted in May and June. When we review and check out
these predictions, it shows that predicting the outcome and evolution of war
is not as difficult as we think. The same reasoning can be applied to predict
the effects of nuclear weapons.
Tired to write according to the so-called
ACADEME requirements and getting rejected repeatedly. The author will publish
brief predictions on the blogs without attaching so-called references. Are
references useful for prediction? Can something proved by references be called
prediction?
Key words: war, Russia-Ukraine
War, prediction, nuclear weapon.
Predictions that have unfortunately been
confirmed [1][2]
1. About Ukraine.
1.1 Ukraine
will surely lose more territory than it had done before the war started. The
bigger risk is that Ukraine may lose more territory, and even lose its country
frame finally. [2]
June 18, 2022.
1.2 There
is a high probability that Ukraine will split into several small pieces and
become a powder keg for Europe.[2]
June 18, 2022.
2. Local countries send their troops inside.
2.1 Ukraine must rely on economic and equipment
support from USA and Europe, as well as troop support from the local countries. [1] . May 23, 2022.
2.2 If the war lasts for more than six months, there
might be 3 to 7 European countries directly involving themselves in this war. [2]
June 18, 2022.
2.3 Once
some local countries send their troops into Ukraine, that will result in the
Somaliization of Ukraine. The worse condition is the possibility to repeat the
script of Yugoslavia's disintegration. [1]
May 23, 2022
3 Russia
break up Ukraine
3.1 The
establishment of multiple local regimes dependent on Russia is also an
important part. [1]
May 23, 2022.
3.2 Russia
has to make a series of complex plans to deal with long-term pressure from the USA,
including establishing about 7 autonomous local governments. [1].
May 23, 2022.
4
Weakened
Europe in chaos.
4.1 The EU and Europe will be weakened by this war. [1][2] May 23, 2022.
4.2 This is not a war for European long-term interests. [2]
June 18, 2022.
4.3 The
Somaliization or Yugoslavization of Ukraine, would be a source of long-term
instability in Europe. [1]
May 23, 2022.
4.4 Ukraine
will become the birthplace of long-term unrest in the European core region. [2]
June 18, 2022.
4.5 The negative effects of a prolonged war are more in the heart of Europe
than in Ukraine. The longer the war lasts, the greater the impact on the
stability of the European core. [2]
June 18, 2022.
4.6 Another
worse and more far-reaching thing is that Europe has lost the prospect of
becoming one of the world's top powers. [2]
June 18, 2022.
4.7 The
biggest loss from the EU is its position as one of the top political players,
and other countries no longer expect this outlook and support it. [2]
June 18, 2022.
5 Divided Europe
5.1 Europe is divided to judge the Russia-Ukraine
War. It is in the interest of the whole of Europe to set up a ceasefire line as
soon as possible. [1] May 23， 2022.
5.2 For core European countries, stabilizing the
situation as soon as possible is the first priority, no matter where the
ceasefire line is. [1] May 23, 2022.
5.3 Some
European countries fear long-term chaos in the region, but sadly, it seems that
they are also incapable of responding properly. [1] May 23, 2022.
5.4 Some countries hope the war prolonged for their
national interests. [1] May 23， 2022.
5.5 Some
European countries will be driven by their youth hormones to jump into a
prolonged war. [1] May 23， 2022.
5.6 Russia
wants to lure Europe to help stabilize ceasefire lines in this region. If the
situation continues to deteriorate, Russia can also participate in or directly
cause chaos in Europe. [1] May 23， 2022.
5.7 A
sturdy Ukrainian Trench has been built. This ditch at least will prevent Russia
from collaborating with Western Europe for the next 20 years, regardless
of where the final ceasefire line is on. [2]
June 18, 2022.
6 USA's Power
6.1 The
United States actually is the most powerful force in the battle of all parties. [1] May 23， 2022.
6.2 The
overwhelming power to set up where and when the ceasefire line comes out is the
United States only. [2]
June 18, 2022.
7. Countries winning or losing
7.1 There are two inevitable losers, Ukraine and the EU. [2]. June 18, 2022.
7.2 They
(Ukraine and the EU) are not the main players as they had no military powers to
start, continue, or stop this conflict with Russia. [2]. June 18, 2022.
7.3 The USA has been the biggest winner recently
with at least 3 things: weakening Europe; weakening Russia; and creating a
Ukrainian Trench to prevent Russia and Europe from approaching each other. [2]. June 18, 2022.
7.4 Russia's economic system will not be destroyed
by this war eventually because it is mainly composed of raw material suppliers. [2]. June 18, 2022[2].
References:
Table 2: Predictions yet to be confirmed or in
progress
|
1. The western wall of the possible front until
2026 will be limited to the banks of the Dnieper plus part of the Black Sea
coast. [1][2]. May 23， 2022.
2. The eastern wall of the front until 2026 will be
limited to the administrative borders of Luhansk and Donetsk. [1][2]. May 23， 2022.
3. The midline area is the easiest area to
establish a ceasefire line. The ceasefire line in this area is in favor of the
US bloc. There is a risk of dragging Russia and Europe into long-term chaos.[1][2]. May 23， 2022.
4. A ceasefire in this area (middle area) is a deep trap that
drags Russia into the uncertainty of war.[1]. May 23， 2022.
5. There is a high possibility that the Russia-Ukraine War will continue
beyond 2026. Even if a temporary ceasefire line is established somewhere, it will
be at risk of renewed fighting in 2024 and 2026.[1][2]. May 23， 2022.
6. If India supports western sanctions against Russia, it will pose a huge
threat to China, because it will build a foundation for the West to form a
grand economic alliance that excludes China. [2]
June 18, 2022.
7. The possibility of compressing Russia eastwards beyond
the L2 line (the eastern wall) does not exist, America has to stop its step before
the L2 line (the eastern wall). [2]
June 18, 2022
8. Line2 (the eastern wall) will also be the bottom
ceasefire line that China will support. [1][2]. May 23， 2022.
9. The L2 (the eastern wall) line is one such line,
solidly preventing NATO’s eastward expansion. [2]
June 18, 2022.
10. If Russia is dragged into a protracted war, it
risks a military defeat. Prehaps Russia has to fall back to the L2 line (the
eastern wall) as the last bottom line. China will support Russia at this line
that means China will not tolerate Russia suffering from a complete military
defeat. [2]
June 18, 2022.
11. Even if there is a ceasefire line somewhere, it
will face enormous challenge in 2024 and 2026 according to the US election and
the situation in the Taiwan Strait. [2]
June 18, 2022.
12. America also can continue to put pressure on Russia whenever needed. It
is even possible to expand NATO into Asia on the basis of a prolonged war. [2]
June 18, 2022.
13. Anti-China voices from Europe will gradually fade as the war continues. If
anti-China voices suddenly grow stronger after a period of muteness, it
indicates that the United States will launch tough actions against China. [2]
June 18, 2022.
14. China will act a big operation across Taiwan Strait in 2026. [2]
June 18, 2022.
Late Predictions:
When reviewing the manuscript above, some of these predictions are still relevant today. The war between Russia and the US group (sorry for not saying Ukraine) will mainly keep in central Ukraine and Southern Ukraine zone between the Eastern and Western Fronts, at least until 2026. Before China is involved in the war, Russia cannot break through the western front, and the US bloc will not break through the eastern front. The basic reasons are as follows:
1. Ukrainians have a strong will to war, but they are limited by their strength. They cannot alone determine the length, scope, and intensity of war. They also are impossible to decide when or where a ceasefire line will be on.
2. There are some countries in Europe that want to profit from this war. There are indeed countries that benefit from it. But without the power of the United States, they still cannot control the outcome of the war.
3. The United States and Russia have always been the decisive and dominant military forces in this conflict. Russia cannot achieve any major political goals in central Ukraine without the consent or acquiescence of the United States. But in eastern and southern Ukraine, Russia has the edge and a chance to eventually dominate.
4. Both the United States and Russia agree, or will agree in the future, that they need a buffer zone or exclusion zone to separate hostile forces. There will be some states that take this duty or consequence.
5. If America wants to divide Russia, it will not be achieved. Military power is an important pillar of the political power of a country or group. But military power is not the whole of political power. The scope and result of military power must be constrained and dominated by political power.
6. If the starting point of the United States is other things other than to divide Russia, it can fully realize its purpose in the Central Ukraine region.
7. The United States will not agree to Russia breaking through the Western Front. The division of Western Ukraine will be dominated by Ukraine's allies if it is reached finally.
8. Russia will not allow the US bloc to break through the Eastern Front. Nor will China allow Russia to suffer a complete military defeat. The Eastern Front is the bottom line for China and Russia to jointly resist the eastward expansion of NATO.
9. Both the United States and Russia have ample room for the political gains they seek in Central Ukraine. The United States could suppress Russia's efforts in Central Ukraine with a sustained but relatively low-intensity pressure program. Russia can continue a high-pressure cat-and-mouse game with the United States in this zone.
10 As USA and Russia do not grab an expectation to completely defeat each other, both of them will not have an urgent need for nuclear options.
11. Even if the United States has a plan to completely defeat Russia, both politically and militarily, this plan is unlikely to come true. Under the joint cooperation of China and Russia, it is impossible for the United States to cross the bottom line of the Eastern Front. This pursuit cannot be achieved by the United States, whether it is through conventional warfare or the use of nuclear tools.
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