Three Possible Ceasefire Lines of Russia-Ukraine War:

Three Possible Ceasefire Lines of Russia-Ukraine War

Reality Basis, Opportunity, and Prospects

 (Original at May 23,2022)


 Abstract: The overwhelming power to set up where and when the ceasefire line comes out is the United States only, even though Russia, West Europe, and China also are important background factors. There are theoretically 3 ceasefire lines in the Russia-Ukraine War. Line 1 is a geographical demarcation drawn by the Dnieper River plus the Black Sea Coastline. Line 2 is bounded by the complete administrative boundary of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. Line 3 is any arc in the wide area between lines 1 and 2. If the United States only pursues a limited outcome in this Russia-Ukraine War and does not directly involve other countries, the United States will have enough initiative to draw a stable ceasefire line anywhere in L1, L2, and even L3. For Russia, corresponding to the uncertainty brought by the L3 line, a ceasefire on the L1 and L2 lines will have a clearer prospect. However, once the United States pursues an expanded war operation and tries to involve more local countries inside recently or in the future, it will bring subversive effects to the world. This prospect must be seriously and fully discussed.

Keywords: Russia-Ukraine War, Ceasefire Line, the United States, China, 2026, Somaliization, Yugoslavization.


The idea of 3 ceasefire lines in Russia-Ukraine War is shaped by April 26, 2022. 

The original paper is shaped and submitted on May 23, 2022.
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When we focus on the Russia-Ukraine War, there are several points worth paying attention to. For ease of discussion, I would like to list them in the following order.

1. The potential ceasefire lines and their basis. 2. when one ceasefire will be chosen by the main players with their purposes. 3. The main aims and purposes to drive big players to fire the war or ceasefire. 4. The positive factors to limit the war. 5, Factors to push the war widely, violently  6, Possibilities Series Caused by an Enlarged and violent War.

 In this Russia-Ukraine War, the protagonists seem to be Ukraine and Russia, but the biggest operators truly are the United States and Russia who only can decide where and when the ceasefire line will be located. Of course, China and Europe will also play an important role to help this program.

There are theoretically 3 ceasefire lines in the Russia-Ukraine War. Line 1 is a geographical demarcation drawn by the Dnieper River plus the Black Sea Coastline. Line 2 is bounded by the complete administrative boundary of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. Line 3 is any arc in the wide area between lines 1 and 2. It may be fixed for a limited period, or it may keep moving back and forth as the fight and ceasefire sway.

 Line1: Characters, Condition, and Prospect

Characters of L1 line

Line1, is a geographical trench divided by the Dnieper River, may plus the Black Sea Coastline. If the parties agree to choose this line for a ceasefire, I think this line will be a relatively stable ceasefire line for quite a long time. The reasons are as follows:

1. Military function line. This line has important military properties, and it can effectively block or delay any battle that either side wants to initiate. This means that the line has the practical function of reducing the frequency and intensity of collisions.

2. Cultural boundaries. There are big differences in culture, psychology, and ethnic structure on both sides of the river. This is a boundary that Russia and Ukraine can accept psychologically, even though the Kyiv region does not have this feature as a special case. Or both sides can agree to divide people with different national inclinations into different banks of this river. It may also have some historical memory of Eastern and Western Ukraine.

3. Geographical boundaries. This is an excellent geopolitical divide to stop Russian power from moving into Western Europe.

4. A western bottom line to divide different political power teams. This line along the banks of the Dnieper River (may plus the coastal territory of the Black Sea), may be the biggest gain Russia can achieve in this war. In fact, it will be impossible for Russia alone to reach any of its plans, if without the agreement of the US bloc. It is very clear that the US bloc does not like to allow Russia to cross the west bank of the Dnieper and occupy some areas in West Ukraine, after Russia has successfully taken possession of Crimea. Therefore, it is not easy for Russia to set up a trench along the Dnieper River and the Black Sea coast. If Russia quickly gets a solid front on this line when the U.S. has not yet decided how big the stakes are, it will win a very good political position.

5.  It looks like a painful but sensible and realistic choice for the United States to set a rejection line on the L1 line. The United States can firmly grasp the benefits already earned without continuing to incur unpredictable costs. These benefits have at least the following three, weakening the EU and Europe, weakening Russia, and separating Russia and Europe into two completely isolated political spheres. By establishing a relatively stable ceasefire line on this line, the United States can also have more resources and more energy to deal with the pressure from China.

6. Russia will be happy to accept a ceasefire line along the bank of the Dnieper and the Black Sea, even though this line may not completely block all Ukrainian coastlines from the Black Sea. It means Russia absolutely achieve all of its main goals, including demilitarization, effective removal of anti-Russian forces, and acquisition of strategic buffer areas in the East Ukraine Region.

 

When Line1 will be located and chosen.

A ceasefire line along the L1 line emerges when the warring parties come to a compromise with closer political will. Here are some of the factors that will prompt the main players in the game, Russia, Ukraine, the United States, and the European Union, to choose Line1 as a ceasefire line.

1, After Russia successfully set up its front at the east bank of the river and then successfully block many counterattacks from the Western group who may be within a mask named Ukrainian military power. Within this situation, the United States may hesitate to pay enormous costs and face harsher consequences, thereby abandoning plans to continue to squeeze Russia eastward.

2, If other local countries, such as Poland, Romania, Hungary, Turkey, Lithuania, etc., have a strong willingness to send their troops into Ukraine, it would be an urgent time when the United States should immediately reach a ceasefire agreement with Russia. Once regional countries intervene in this war, it will inevitably rapidly increase the cost of controlling the war for the United States. One big risk is to lose the effective buffer zone between the United States blocs and the Russian group. The main targets driving these local countries to send their troops into this war may not be something that happened in eastern Ukraine, but the big lure in western Ukraine. Once these local countries actually occupy some areas in western Ukraine, western Ukraine will finally lose its function as a big buffer to divide Europe and Russia.

3, Once there are some big political pressures coming from the front line against China, the US has to immediately divert its main attention to China. According to the political inertia and historical tradition of the Chinese, the Chinese should not take the initiative to create such an opportunity to facilitate such a decision of the United States. However, the second half of 2026 is a high-risk time point. The Western should follow up on Chinese public media voices starting from the end of 2025.

 

The prospects and political basis of Line1 chosen

Rationally, Line1 is an easier solution in the three ceasefire line options, because it is easy for both the United States and Russia to get compromised.

1,  For Russia, of course, the L1 line should be the best result Russia can reach recently. Russia fully achieves its main goals under this ceasefire line, including demilitarization of Ukraine’s Army, removing anti-Russian forces, and acquiring strategic buffer areas to protect its national interests. Russia will be happy to maintain the stability of this ceasefire line. For this big benefit, Russia is more tolerant of low-level provocations on this line by its hostile neighbors.

2,  If the United States treats China as its No. 1 enemy, it is reasonable and realistic for the United States to set up a ceasefire line on the L1 line. The United States has won major political goals along this line, including weakening Europe, weakening Russia, and separating Europe and Russia through a solid Ukrainian Trench. America can avoid investing huge costs into this war.

3, Ukraine is reluctant to accept a ceasefire along the L1 line until Ukraine's military and economic power are exhausted. No Ukrainian politician dares to accept this reality, because it is tantamount to suicide until entire Ukraine has completely lost the ability to fight back against Russia. It is impossible for Ukraine to drive Russia out of the L1 line eastwards by its own capabilities alone. Another reality is that a ceasefire on the L1 line may be scary-looking but is actually a better option for Ukraine. This solution can avoid the worse outcome of Somaliization or the Yugoslavization of Ukraine after multiple local states' interventions during this war.

4, Europe is divided to judge the Russia-Ukraine War. It is in the interest of the whole of Europe to set up a ceasefire line in anywhere of Ukraine as soon as possible that can prevent Europe from falling into chaos. However, some countries hope the war will be prolonged for their national interests. In fact, the division of Europe is also a projection of the division of the United States. Once the United States has a clear plan, any country in Europe must act under the plan of the United States.

 

Line2: Realistic characters, Opportunity, and Prospect

Line2, the Second Ceasefire Line, delimited by the complete administrative boundaries of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, can also be another relatively stable ceasefire line for a number of reasons.

 

The realistic basis of this ceasefire line

1, This line may have been one of the options initially set by Russia. If Ukraine quickly makes a comprehensive compromise with Russia and falls to Russia in an all-around way, becoming Russia's front of denial to prevent NATO's eastward proliferation, then setting an “administrative separation line” on the L2 line is realistic. That option quickly disappeared, as Russia's first phase of military operations was unsuccessful.  

2, Line2 already has a clear historical note that the Ukrainian government has administratively lost control of the region for more than eight years. Russia has declared that these two regions have achieved a kind of status like Croatia, at least like the status of Kosovo. Russia has enough power to keep its political position in these two regions so that Russia's this political statement will become a political fact or political reality.

3, This line will be the top achievement of the US bloc can reach in this upheaval. Not only for Ukraine and Europe but for the entire US bloc, the possibility of compressing Russia eastward across the L2 line does not exist. No matter how big the cards are in the US, and no matter how tough politicians appear in the US, America has to stop its step in front of the L2 line.

4, Politically, this is a reality acceptable to both the Russian elite and the general public.

5, Line2 will also be the bottom ceasefire line that China will support. Relations between China and Russia have always been complex and delicate. For nearly 40 years, they'd rather be polite and unfamiliar neighbors vigilantly and cooperatively. They were defending and cooperating with each other for the past 40 years. However, China will definitely support Russia on a certain bottom line to avoid Russia suffering from a complete political and military defeat. The L2 line is one such line, protecting China and Russia and preventing NATO's eastward expansion.

 

Line2, Timing, and contributing factors

Although this line is relatively stable, it will be very hard to reach. It must work with the following timing factors.

1. Russia suffers from a series of defeats on the battlefield, and headaches in the economic base in a prolonged war. Public opinion in Russia does not continue to support a protracted war.

2. There is also a very low probability that some Ukrainian military forces get rid of the control of the United States. They successfully seize the initiative in the war, and then reach a comprehensive political compromise with Russia, and then put the ceasefire line back on this line.

3. China will come forward to issue an official statement, indicating that this line is an important factor for European stability.

 

The prospect of Line2

1, To accept this line means that the Russian elite truly accepts an oppressive failure after their repeated struggles. It also marks that Russia is failed in both military and economic fields. Setting up a defense wall at this line will prevent a possible political rout subsequently. A Re-initiated war would come with a huge risk of political defeat so the Russian side will prefer to maintain the stability of this ceasefire line. The probability of this solution is very low.

2, To reach this line, Ukraine must rely on economic and equipment support from the United States and the European Union, as well as military troops, and support from other local countries. Once this reality is realized at the L2 line, these countries who have sent troops will definitely cash their invested costs on Ukrainian territory. The ways to monetize their cost include building multiple small local regimes that depend on these local powers. This will result in the Somaliization of Ukraine. The worse condition is the possibility to repeat the script of Yugoslavia's disintegration.

3, A very dramatic scenario will come up on the L2 line script. Russia's small allies, including Belarus and the small Central Asian countries, will oppose the reality of dismembering Ukraine, but Ukraines local friends will dismember Ukraine in practice. If it ends up involved in China, the chances of Somaliization or Yugoslavization will be very high.

4, The concomitant consequence of a ceasefire on the L2 line, the Somaliization or Yugoslavization of Ukraine, would be a source of long-term instability in Europe.

 

Line3, the third group of the ceasefire line.

Characters of L3 line

Actually, there is a group of ceasefire lines to temporarily stop the fire of the Russia-Ukraine War in a big area between Line1 and Line2. Any one of them can come out easily under a low degree of compromise from both sides in the war so that it can be broken by a low level of political need from any side in the war. Sometimes it even can be set up in a single way needed by a single side in the war. Either one side or both sides in this war can easily build a ceasefire line in this wide zone when they have some degree of political need.

Establishing a ceasefire line in this area is the easiest of the three ceasefire line options, as it does not require that one side be completely defeated. In other words, either side of the ceasefire line reserves enough capacity to initiate the next confrontation. Provoking the next conflict does not require particularly large political and economic costs. A ceasefire line in the L3 line zone has completely different political values for America and Russia. For America, the L3 line is a perfect handle to direct war on period and size. At the same time, a ceasefire in this area is a deep trap that drags Russia into the uncertainty of war.

The United States actually is the most powerful force on the battlefield of all parties. The United States not only has the power to decide when and where to set up a ceasefire line but also has the magic power to turn an unfavorable situation into a situation in its favor. If the United States wants to establish a ceasefire line in the L3 line region, it means that the United States has plans to maintain its influence in this region for a long time. Every other country, including Russia, has to dance to America's pace. However, it seems that the United States recently has no clear plan for a ceasefire line. America also has another big advantage in that the U. S. can exert force in the two directions of Belarus and Kazakhstan, to make Russia bleed slowly and chronically.

Russia is another superpower in this war that has enough power to keep its right and influence in the east Ukraine area. If a ceasefire line finally is set up at the L3 region, Russia has to make a series of complex plans to deal with long-term pressure from the United States, Including establishing about seven autonomous local governments.

Some European countries, may Poland, Romania, Hungary, Turkey, and baltic states, will be driven by their youth hormones to jump into a prolonged war, but in the end, they will get little thing but the experience of failure. Some European countries fear long-term chaos in the region, but sadly, it seems that they are also incapable of responding properly.

 

Opportunity of L3 line

If the United States and Russia, the main forces in this war, have the same expectation of reducing the war cost as soon as possible, setting a ceasefire line on the L3 line might be the first option to be realized. If Russia fails to establish a stable military line of denial on the L1 line by this winter, the chances of a ceasefire line on the L3 line will increase sharply. When Russia is facing strong military pressure, and the United States is facing strong economic pressure, there is a relatively high probability to get a ceasefire agreement before this winter. 

 

The prospect of Line3

Any ceasefire line in the L3 line area is at risk, not only for Russia but for other players who are in or will be in the war.

For Russia, because the United States has a strong comprehensive force, the United States has strong control over the situation in L3 line region. Russia faces a huge risk to be drawn into a prolonged war. The establishment of a strong military line of denial is necessary for Russia, but it also means that Russia will continue to cost itself in this area. The establishment of multiple local regimes dependent on Russia is also an important part. At the same time, Russia must accelerate its entry into the Chinese-dominated economic system. And Russia wants to lure Europe to help stabilize ceasefire lines in this region. If the situation continues to deteriorate, Russia can also participate in or directly cause chaos in Europe.

For multiple local countries, putting a ceasefire line on the L3 zone may be a good opportunity to intervene in this extended war. This opportunity may increase their voice in Europe and their influence on the regional situation. It may also enhance the self-confidence and sense of honor of their citizens. But under the oppression of several major powers such as the United States, China, Russia, France, Germany, Iran, and Turkey, how much room do they have to perform? Once Europe is oppressed by the three major powers of Russia, Iran, and Turkey, how these countries driven by youth hormones will protect themselves from great danger?

For core countries of Europe, stabilizing the situation in Europe as soon as possible is the first priority, no matter where the ceasefire line is. In particular, these core countries should not get involved in a dispute with China caused by this prolonged war, because China's solution to a large-scale dispute must have countermeasures for Europe.

For Ukraine, It is a fact that Ukraine does not have enough power on its own to confront Russia on the L3 line. In this area, Ukraine must rely on economic and equipment support from the United States and Europe, as well as troop support from the local countries. These local countries sending their troops into the battlefield of the Russia-Ukraine war must be based on the interests of their respective countries and not the interests of Ukraine. The military investment of these countries must be cashed out in some way. A major cashing way is mainly achieved by establishing some local regimes in Ukrainian territory. This is equivalent to the Somaliization of Ukraine. The worse result is a replay of the script of Yugoslavia's split.

For America, It seems that establishing a ceasefire line on the L3 line would be beneficial to the United States. The United States has enough power to dominate the situation in this region, including ceasefires and restarts, to control the scale and length of wars. America also can continue to put pressure on Russia whenever needed. It is even possible to expand NATO into Asia on the basis of a prolonged war. But once Poland, Romania, Hungary, Iran, Turkey, and other local countries are involved in this war, will the United States still have enough power to control the situation? Will the US turn from winner to loser? These are questions for the United States to consider, and no one has answered yet.

 

In short, there are theoretically three ceasefire lines. The L1 line is along the Dnieper River and the Black Sea coastline. The L2 line is the complete administrative border along Donetsk and Luhansk. L3 is any ceasefire line set in the vast area between the L1 and L2 lines.

The L2 line is a relatively stable ceasefire line, but it is extremely difficult to obtain and is basically hopeless until 2026.

The L3 line currently appears to be the easiest ceasefire line to achieve. The major nations in the war seem to be fighting to make it happen. But it contains huge risks for all parties involved.

Although L1 is not easy to obtain, it seems that it is a relatively stable ceasefire line for all parties. If the main players involved in the war do not want to continue to invest huge costs, a ceasefire on the L1 line should be an ideal solution.





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