ب1أ2 أين ورقة رابحة لوقف إطلاق النار في الحرب الروسية الأوكرانية؟


الخط L1 هو الأكثر انسجاماً مع مصالح كل من الولايات المتحدة وروسيا على المدى الطويل. إذا تمكن التحالف الأمريكي من قمع روسيا إلى الخط L2، فإن خط وقف إطلاق النار الذي تم إنشاؤه على الخط L2 مستقر نسبياً أيضاً. أما خط وقف إطلاق النار الثالث فهو خط وقف إطلاق النار الذي تم تحديده في أي مكان بين خط L1 وخط L2. وخط وقف إطلاق النار هذا غير مستقر. وهذا يعني أن الولايات المتحدة لديها خطة طويلة الأجل للتدخل في السياسة الأوروبية من خلال استغلال الوضع في أوكرانيا.

يجب أن يراعي الإنشاء النهائي لخط وقف إطلاق النار أولاً أهداف الخطة السياسية الأمريكية. وفي الوقت نفسه، يجب أن يؤخذ في الاعتبار سعي كل من الولايات المتحدة وروسيا لتحقيق مصالحهما. وبطبيعة الحال، إذا أرادت الصين التدخل، فإنها ستصبح أيضًا متغيرًا رئيسيًا. ولا يمكن تجاهل أصحاب المصلحة الآخرين، بما في ذلك أوكرانيا وأوروبا ككل وجيران أوكرانيا.

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